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In the Contraction phase, the long-term supply wave hits and the entire futures curve collapses, maintaining the contango shape, while all activity stalls and costs re-set lower. Once the physical market tightens, but the perception of future supply abundance persists, the sector enters the Restraint phase — moderate investment keeps the physical market tight, while long-cycle investment consolidates in the hands of a few large companies that can self-finance the new investments; the curve flips into backwardation, and while investment levels pick up from the lows, long-cycle development costs remain mildly deflationary.
The Restraint phase, instead, sees a slow, consistent improvement in returns, led by an oligopolistic market structure, better management of the supply chain and advantaged resource access. Big Oils have consistently offered higher dividend yields vs the market, but the gap tends to widen in the Expansion and Contraction phases and narrow in the Restraint period.
Download Financial Express App for latest business news. If we had not kept delaying new investment decisions in oil and gas since , we essentially could have had a new Saudi Arabia and a new Qatar. The third way is just to look at the billion dollar numbers.
These are three different ways to look at the issue but the answer is the same: We have exhausted all of the spare capacity in the system, and now we are no longer able to cope with supply disruptions like the one we are currently witnessing because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. What role has the war between Russia and Ukraine had on investment in the energy space? Is the conflict the reason you expect energy investment to increase? The issues around Russia and Ukraine have brought the importance of security of supply and the social importance of guaranteeing affordable energy access to a growing world population back to the forefront.
Within that context, the conflict is also leading to a broader rebalancing of social versus environmental issues in the environmental, social and governance ESG frameworks of the investing community. Decarbonization is a key driver of decision-making but it needs to be balanced carefully with the social importance of affordable energy and the key role of natural gas in the energy transition. We need more investment in energy as a whole following these seven years of underinvestment, including renewables, hydrogen and other low carbon sources of energy, but we also expect oil and gas investment to go up.
We are seeing it first of all in the shorter cycle projects like U. We think the pace of big oil and gas decisions is likely going to triple over the next three to five years versus what we have seen at the trough of the cycle in What exactly does this mean? In every commodity, when you try to forecast a future price, you want to understand the price needed to get enough new projects to be developed. Since , the cost curve of oil has become smaller because there are fewer available resources and it's become steeper because higher oil prices will be needed for production and to supply energy for a growing world population.
A shrinking and steeping cost curve suggests upward pressure to long-term energy prices. Top Projects expects the global production of LNG to be slow until LNG is one of the few alternatives of scale to Russian gas. There are two clear ways Europe can get more of this energy. Either it outbids current recipients and pays more than the likes of India and China, effectively taking LNG from that market.
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