MacIntyre, who at 61st in the world could secure starts in everything next year with a big week, won at this time in , and it coincided with a gear shift in terms of difficulty and pressure. Before going across a dream fortnight in Cyprus, he'd withdrawn from the Scottish Championship and finished 58th at Wentworth, managing just one top finish in eight starts following his return to action.
One year on, I wouldn't be at all surprised if something similar happened and he's one to watch very closely over the next three weeks. Can Coetzee repeat the feat? The reason he went off second-favourite to Fleetwood was not only that he'd won back home a week earlier, but that he adores it here.
Coetzee's worst finish in eight starts is 31st, he averages George Coetzee won the Portugal Masters last year All that remains true, except he's now won the event, his first European Tour title outside of Africa and a significant milestone in his career.
What's more, I'm not sure he's even out of form. Last time we saw him Coetzee made 14 birdies and finished mid-pack at Valderrama, where he's never likely to threaten, and before that he was a solid 24th in the Open de Espana courtesy of 21 birdies. He's made five of his last six cuts, the exception being the Dunhill Links where he has one top finish in nine tries and hasn't been competitive in several years now.
Returning to that Valderrama effort, it's all the more encouraging given that he shot 76 in round one. Only one player in the field fared worse on Thursday yet advanced to the weekend, and that's the sort of achievement a professional golfer can draw something from when they know they're not quite at their best. Ultimately, the standout course specialist in this field screams value. There's some quality at the top of it, but Coetzee's best is equal to or better than everyone around him in the market and he's a superior player to the likes of Fabrizio Zanotti, Will Besseling, Alex Bjork and Jorge Campillo, all of them shorter.
Course form can be a red herring when a player simply isn't where they need to be, but Coetzee is ticking over nicely. It may just be that a return to his number one European Tour stop, bar perhaps his home course in Pretoria, sees him turn encouraging golf into contending golf. He's must-bet material. Pep Angles for example arrives off a career-best European Tour performance and suddenly has a chance to keep his card, at a course where he produced his standout finish T12 in an otherwise terrible campaign back in Angles, a big-hitter who saves his best for his native Spain and neighbouring Portugal, has to have an each-way chance if building on what he did in Mallorca, and the same goes for Quiros, a former champion here whose iron play has been as good as just about anyone's for a while.
Come the end of the week, anyone reaching under bagged the place money and that sort of test would bring Langasque firmly into the equation. It should be clear to anyone following the European Tour that he's turned a corner recently, first starting well in the Dutch Open, Dunhill Links and Open de Espana, extending that to the halfway lead in the Andalucia Masters, and offering more signs of encouragement with bookend 67s in Mallorca.
Strokes-gained data from the latter event comes with an asterisk as there were no volunteers on the ground and caddies were instead required to provide distances, which tends to exaggerate things at both ends of the spectrum. However, we can be confident that Langasque produced another strong tee-to-green display, and he led the field in the old-fashioned and in this case reliable metric that is ball-striking.
Certainly, Langasque's driving isn't far behind Canter's when on-song, and any improvement in the putter would make him a serious danger to all. Langasque has only played here once, and a share of 39th in might not look much. However, he'd missed six cuts coming in and would miss three more after, which suggests he found serious comfort here. His return comes at a good time and he's a long way down the betting for one so capable.
The same comment applies to Sean Crocker, who shot here four years ago when at the very beginning of his professional career. A fabulous ball-striker, the American has contended several times over the last 12 months, has correlating form in Qatar where he contended on an invite, and got his driver purring again in Mallorca. He'll need to dial in the irons as well but it's unlikely his malaise lasts for long and having been sent off at very short odds a couple of months ago, he's suddenly out of favour.
In doing so the Englishman showed that he can compete when scoring is low and he did so on a similar par 71, one which might tie in quite nicely with Dom Pedro if we ever get to see it again. I'm not really mad on biorhythms myself and the case here is more about one of the best drivers on the circuit, who has been playing well for a while, and need only find a similar upturn on the greens to that which powered his breakthrough.
Callum Shinkwin Shinkwin finished 17th here on his debut in the event after an opening 64, came back and shot 65 in round one the following year, and is a far better player than when missing the cut as one who was fighting for his card in Now established as a winner and exempt through next season, he's well capable of kicking on. There wasn't much wrong with Shinkwin's T37 at Valderrama, where his previous form read MC, nor 39th in the Dunhill Links where he was 19th with a round to go.
Rewind to late summer and he finished fourth in Wales, 16th in Scotland and third in England, and at a course where English players have won seven of 14 renewals he looks a live one who could bully the scoring holes as Lewis has done twice before. Bjorn again? Nino Bertasio was the halfway leader here in thanks to back-to-back 65s, and he's a player I've always thought capable of more.
Long enough off the tee and with his iron play good right now, the Italian is really hard to predict with the putter but is in good form following a strong run in Spain. Clearly it's possible that only once behind him can he really get back on track, and he isn't one for maximum faith. However, 20th at Valderrama last time was an eye-catching performance, holes seven and nine costing him a crack at Matt Fitzpatrick seven-under for the other 66 holes; Fitzpatrick won in six-under.
Crucially, Olesen produced his best strokes-gained approach figure since his European Tour suspension was lifted and he made 16 birdies at one of the toughest courses on the circuit. Last September he was fifth after round one and Dom Pedro is a course which allows him to get away with the odd errant drive, which he's always had in his locker. Clearly, Korhonen must have been doing something right to be just outside the top 50 and, from betting on the outright market point of view, his results are ideal: a combination of feast and famine rather than a succession of steady top 15s.
In his last 12 starts, Korhonen has bagged a pair of top threes and two further top eights. The first of those third places came in the British Masters where he finished at while the second place was posted in the Cazoo Open at Celtic Manor thanks to laps of which put him at Two starts ago, the year-old was tied eighth at the Italian Open having been second at halfway and fourth with around to play.
Strokes Gained: Putting is definitely a stat to look at on this course and Korhonen ranks a healthy 35th for SGP this season. Over the last eight weeks, only five other players have better Strokes Gained: Putting figures than Jorge Campillo.
The Spaniard has finished in the top eight in that category in three of his last four events and that prowess on the greens helped him finish runner-up in the Mallorca Golf Open on his latest start. Earlier in October, he was also tied 17th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, another coastal event. Campillo likes this course too. His rival in a hole match at bet is Wil Besseling. The Dutchman was a useful tied 14th here last year on his first visit but his SGP numbers are negative over the last eight weeks.
He did putt well when sixth at the Open de Espana but that remains something of an anomaly and, overall, Campillo has the more robust numbers. Back Campillo to win the day.
NON INVESTING COMPARATOR WITH POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP
He may have missed the cut here last year but has form in other places that suggests he can contend. Most notably that victory in the Cazoo Classic, played on an equally exposed layout at London Golf Club Rasmus Hojgaard was 3rd there, adding further encouragement to his chances.
Past winner here in Portugal, Alex Levy, was 2nd that week and another past Portugal winner, Andy Sullivan finished 13th. Furthermore, he finished an excellent 4th in the star-studded Saudi International earlier in the year. Now a European Tour winner, Hill has record four wins in 78 starts as a professional, including three on the Challenge Tour. I expect him to go from strength to strength over the coming years and can dispel bad memories of a missed cut here last year on his second crack at the course.
I thought Renato Paratore was a little overpriced this week. Also possessing the combination of distance off the tee and the potential for lights-out putting displays that often see you go well around here. Those three top 25s have come courtesy of a three-week stint in Spain.
First finishing 9th in the Open de Espana, he followed with an impressive 25th at the less than suitable Valderrama and then 11th last time out, when we were also on him, in the Mallorca Open. Following finishes of 57th and 73rd in his first two attempts with 27th and 21st place finishes the last twice. Additionally, he owns a good book of form at correlating course.
His first victory on tour in the Nordea Masters back in took place at the partially exposed Barseback Country Club. To go with that is a 2nd place finish in that Mauritius Open won by Rasmus Hojgaard in , a 4th place finish in Qatar and a 5th place finish in the Czech Masters, again an exposed course that favours aggressive golf and generally bigger hitters. A really poor year has gotten a little better in recent weeks for Mike Lorenzo-Vera, another player who enjoyed the three-week run in Spain, picking up a couple of top 25s.
The most promising thing about his performances in Spain, was the marked improvements in his iron play. Putting up good numbers in all three events, including his missed cut last time out in Mallorca. With his usually solid putter also looking like heating up a little more as we approach the end of the season.
He holds 2nd and 4th place finishes in Qatar, a 2nd in the Rocco Forte Open, played on an exposed resort course, an 8th in the Dubai Desert Classic and though often a much tougher test than Portugal, 3rd and 6th place finishes at Le Golf National in the Open de France also seem to work. If able to continue the enhanced approach play he showed in Spain, he can improve on his two missed cuts here and can go well. Winning on just his 5th tour start in the correlating Oman Open last year, Valimaki followed that with five further top 10 finishes, including going close once again when finishing 2nd in the Wales Open.
Though most parts of his game have been off this year, the part that has endured has been the putter, following on from being the 4th ranked player on tour last year, to maintaining a high position this, as the 9th best putter. This was very much the story of his 25th in the Andalucia Masters, where his tee-to-green game was average, but he ranked 4th on the greens.
The hope is that good performance, his best since May, can spark the rest of his game into life. Another player that was in the selections in Mallorca last time out was big hitting South African, Zander Lombard and though not getting the rewards, he certainly showed plenty to like with a 26th place finish and is definitely worth another go at a big price. The most likeable thing about his performance that week was how well he hit his irons, ranking 11th for the week and maintained a good level of performance throughout the week.
Also playing well around the greens. A 5th place finish in the Austrian Open and 11th in the Czech Masters adding more assurance as to his suitability for this event. The longest hitter in Europe in those days and a seven-time winner, the amiable giant has suffered with hand and nerve problems for much of the intervening period but seems to be fit again now and threatened to challenge in Majorca last time out.
Fitzpatrick took his revenge at Valderrama but the Ryder Cup man was the only one to finish ahead of Lee on his latest outing so we know his game is in good shape. The Victoria, a birdie-strewn yard par 71, is not such a complex test as Valderrama but Lee did make the cut there on his only course experience two years ago and has come on a bundle since then. Maybe returning to the Algarve where he posted the first of his four victories in the Portugal Open at Morgado will inspire this grafter but he has less potential than some.
Sullivan was an almost unbelievable 45 under par for the eight wonderful rounds he shot at Vilamoura when winning this tournament by nine fat shots in and just failing to repeat the following year when losing out by a stroke to Padraig Harrington. Quiros is also a course winner and you have to delve even further back to find his name on the honours board, to He fell away to 11th on the final day but nobody knows the course better - he represented Victoria on the tour for a number of years - and a small bet is worth risking.
More obvious claims are held by Laurie Canter who was runner-up to George Coetzee last year and is on a bit of a tear right now, having followed a share of second place behind Billy Horschel at Wentworth with fourth at Valderrama and fifth in Majorca. The snag with the 6ft 3in Bath stylist is that he remains winless and is not the best at handling pressure.
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Sports betting opportunities at the Portugal MastersSAMPDORIA VS UDINESE BETTING PREVIEW
Bet on Portugal Masters Here! In other words, this is one of the easier tests the European Tour players will see. Dom Pedro is an Arnold Palmer design with a par of English players have won six of the 14 editions while Irishman Padraig Harrington lifted the trophy in The other big factor this week is incentives.
In , Jamie Donaldson, Wade Ormsby, and Daniel Brooks all played the final event needing a top-five to secure their playing privileges. Remarkably, all three got the job done. Finally, the weather forecast shows sunshine and temperatures around 70 degrees. Wind speeds are around mph but it could gust harder. The good news is that Dom Pedro looks at an ideal stage on which the Finn can make a move.
That course form and Race to Dubai incentive can be backed up further with some notable results over the last few months. Clearly, Korhonen must have been doing something right to be just outside the top 50 and, from betting on the outright market point of view, his results are ideal: a combination of feast and famine rather than a succession of steady top 15s. In his last 12 starts, Korhonen has bagged a pair of top threes and two further top eights. He has a couple of performances in the Middle East that add further encouragement, events that have often offered pointers to success in Portugal, due to the generally exposed layouts of a majority of courses there.
So any form in that part of the world is a bonus. Earlier this year he finished 9th in the Dubai Desert Classic and followed it with a 6th in the Saudi International. He also possesses a 6th place finish in the Oman Open from last year. Hopefully he can get himself in the mix on Sunday. Calum Hill has been progressing nicely the last two years or so, finally getting his first European title in August in the Cazoo Classic.
Though he missed the cut here on debut last year, I think he has the right type of game to contend in Vilamoura. His game is one with few weaknesses. He ranks 37th tee-to-green and is more than adequate in each of the three measured areas associated with T2G performance, also possessing enough distance off the tee.
He takes advantage of his solid tee-to-green game by being an excellent putter, ranking 13th on tour, which all equates to him being the 2nd best birdie maker in Europe. He may have missed the cut here last year but has form in other places that suggests he can contend. Most notably that victory in the Cazoo Classic, played on an equally exposed layout at London Golf Club Rasmus Hojgaard was 3rd there, adding further encouragement to his chances.
Past winner here in Portugal, Alex Levy, was 2nd that week and another past Portugal winner, Andy Sullivan finished 13th. Furthermore, he finished an excellent 4th in the star-studded Saudi International earlier in the year. Now a European Tour winner, Hill has record four wins in 78 starts as a professional, including three on the Challenge Tour. I expect him to go from strength to strength over the coming years and can dispel bad memories of a missed cut here last year on his second crack at the course.
I thought Renato Paratore was a little overpriced this week. Also possessing the combination of distance off the tee and the potential for lights-out putting displays that often see you go well around here. Those three top 25s have come courtesy of a three-week stint in Spain.
First finishing 9th in the Open de Espana, he followed with an impressive 25th at the less than suitable Valderrama and then 11th last time out, when we were also on him, in the Mallorca Open. Following finishes of 57th and 73rd in his first two attempts with 27th and 21st place finishes the last twice.
Additionally, he owns a good book of form at correlating course. His first victory on tour in the Nordea Masters back in took place at the partially exposed Barseback Country Club. To go with that is a 2nd place finish in that Mauritius Open won by Rasmus Hojgaard in , a 4th place finish in Qatar and a 5th place finish in the Czech Masters, again an exposed course that favours aggressive golf and generally bigger hitters.
A really poor year has gotten a little better in recent weeks for Mike Lorenzo-Vera, another player who enjoyed the three-week run in Spain, picking up a couple of top 25s. The most promising thing about his performances in Spain, was the marked improvements in his iron play. Putting up good numbers in all three events, including his missed cut last time out in Mallorca.
With his usually solid putter also looking like heating up a little more as we approach the end of the season.
